"BRAIN DRAIN"

A Climate of Fear

The Trump administration has moved to revoke student visas. The Department of Homeland Security cancelled the visas of international students at Harvard University, accusing the institution of hosting “anti-American, antisemitic, and pro-terrorist” agitators, and allegedly collaborating with the Chinese Communist Party through training programs for paramilitary members.

A total of 6,793 international students, representing 27.2% of Harvard’s enrolment, risked losing their legal status in the U.S. In response, Harvard sued to prevent the federal government from cutting off funding. Regardless of the outcome, the damage is already done. A climate of fear and exclusion has taken hold, discouraging international students from studying in the United States - once known as “the land of the free and the home of the brave.”

Just a week later, the administration escalated further by targeting Chinese students in critical fields like science, math, and engineering. This group accounts for 53% of the 270,000 Chinese students in the U.S., and about 15% of all international students. Meanwhile, the number of American students in China has plummeted to just 800. If China retaliated by revoking American student visas, the impact would be minimal. China actually wants more international students, not fewer. While China encourages global academic collaboration, the U.S. under Donald Trump moved in the opposite direction, cutting more and more scientific ties.

When the Labs Go Quiet

The broader context goes back to 2018, when President Trump launched the “China Initiative” to combat alleged economic espionage by Chinese scientists and scholars with ties to the CPC. Although most allegations were dropped, the consequences were severe: many Chinese researchers lost funding, and scientific collaboration between the U.S. and China suffered. The inflow of international scientific talent into the U.S. declined, while China’s grew and surpassed the U.S.. American scientists, wary of working with Chinese counterparts, pulled back, leading to job losses and fewer joint research projects. If this trend continues, it could mark a point of no return for the U.S., potentially reshaping the global scientific landscape and weakening American leadership in research well into the next decade.

International students have long been vital to the U.S. economy and innovation ecosystem. They contribute $44 billion annually to U.S. universities and their local communities. Many play key roles in the U.S. tech scene as researchers, engineers, or startup founders. Around 25% of all U.S. unicorn companies (startups valued at over $1 billion) have at least one international student as a co-founder. These students are a driving force behind America’s innovation. Pushing them away undermines a main source of the U.S.’s competitive strength.

Global Talent War

The United States has long held a significant asymmetric advantage in attracting top global talent. For decades, other countries have envied the U.S. for its ability to draw the world’s brightest minds, a key pillar of its technological leadership. Elon Musk even argued that this "unfair advantage" is essential for maintaining dominance. But Musk's and Trump’s bromance appears to be over - reflecting deeper divides over immigration, talent, and tech policy. 

J.D. Vance argues that the U.S. achieved historic milestones, like the moon landing, with mostly American-born talent. But today’s innovation landscape looks different. U.S. tech companies openly acknowledge their reliance on foreign talent, particularly as domestic enthusiasm for STEM declines. The current silence from Big Tech reflects the political pressure they face after previously supporting the administration.

Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, has praised Chinese AI researchers as “world-class.” In computer science, the majority of PhD students in the U.S. now come from China and India - and many plan to stay in the U.S. after graduation. While India has surpassed China in student numbers, it contributes only 5% of the world’s top AI talent, while China makes up 47%. China has six AI research institutions ranked in the global top 25. India has none. The U.S. hosts 60% of these elite institutions, but nearly half of the world’s top AI researchers are Chinese. U.S. companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and DeepMind are actively recruiting lots of Chinese talent to remain competitive.

From Macro Polo’s

Reverse Brain Drain

Driven by rising anti-China sentiment in the U.S. and proactive policies from Chinese institutions, more top Chinese AI talent is choosing to stay or return to China. In 2024, more than a dozen leading scientists in physics and mathematics have left the U.S. to join prestigious Chinese universities like Peking University and Tsinghua. Some had lived in the U.S. for decades and held American citizenship. In total, over 1,000 Chinese scientists are returning to China from the U.S. each year - and that number is growing fast. China’s global share of leading scientists has also increased from 17% to 28% in the last five years, while the U.S. share has declined from 33% to 28%.

Chinese academia may see Trump’s visa bans as an unexpected gift to bring back talented students. But the real opportunity may lie within European universities. Chinese students don’t just go abroad for research. They seek new experiences, perspectives, and personal growth. And with Trump’s broader trade wars targeting multiple countries, many of those same students may now opt for destinations like the UK, EU, Canada, or Australia instead. That’s why revoking U.S. visas likely won’t hurt China’s innovation ambitions. Chinese students will simply redirect elsewhere.

Biotech: The Next Battleground

One of the most dramatic shifts in global talent migration is now unfolding in the biotech sector. Chinese students on temporary visas account for 35% of all doctoral degrees awarded in the biological sciences in the U.S. Until 2020, 74% of U.S. biotech patents filed by Chinese inventors were assigned to American companies. But this is changing. In 2024, China surpassed the U.S. in life sciences R&D, conducting 33% of global clinical trials, compared to 28% for the U.S.. Chinese biotechnology firms have begun developing breakthrough treatments, such as a cancer immunotherapy that outperformed Merck’s blockbuster Keytruda. Some see this moment as the biotech equivalent of DeepSeek’s breakthrough in AI.

Looking ahead to 2025, 37% of all licensed drug molecules used by the Big Pharma firms are expected to originate from Chinese biotech companies - up from just 12% three years ago. China’s share of global biopharma companies has also grown sharply, from 5% to 16% in seven years. Once the global leader in biotech innovation, the U.S. now risks losing its edge. If anti-China visa policies continue, more Chinese inventors will assign biotech patents to Chinese rather than U.S. companies. At the same time, U.S. cuts to biomedical research funding (like at NIH) will only accelerate China’s competitive rise. What’s happening in biotech will very soon follow in AI, semiconductors, quantum tech, and beyond - unless the U.S. rethinks its approach to global talent. The brain drain is already reversing. And America is on the wrong end of the pipeline.

Summit Therapeutics share rise after licensing from a Chinese biotech called Akeso