China: The World's First Electrostate

Despite widespread disappointment with the outcomes of the UN climate talks (COP29) in Baku this November, I sense a turning point. The commitment from developed countries to channel $300 billion annually until 2035 fell far short of the $1.3 trillion requested by developing nations. Adding to the setbacks, the recent reelection of Donald Trump - who has pledged to roll back climate policies- raises the likelihood of the U.S., currently the second largest CO2 emitter and historically the largest emitter, leaving the Paris Agreement. This placed many delegates in a difficult position, forcing them to agree on what is widely seen as a 'bad deal' in Azerbaijan.

Despite sending 1,000 delegates, China was singled out as the main culprit for being the largest CO2 emitter today, having surpassed the EU in historical emissions by 2024. However, it has not committed any financial contributions to help developing countries tackle global warming. As the world's second-largest economy, yet still classified as a developing country by the WTO, the question arises: should China contribute?

At COP29, China announced again it would not agree to compulsory contributions. However, for the first time, it revealed that it had already voluntarily provided $25.5 billion to support developing countries' climate responses. Additionally, Beijing contributed over $30 billion to global finance through its Belt and Road Initiative. These contributions place China on par with the UK and as the fifth-largest financial provider globally, after Japan, Germany, the US, and France.

So, is China doing enough to tackle climate change? One of the most interesting recent articles answers that question. An analysis from CarbonBrief: Solar will send coal power tumbling by 2030, IEA data reveals.

Following the long "Age of Coal" and the "Age of Oil," we are now entering the "Age of Electricity." By 2030, global electricity generation from solar is expected to quadruple and increase more than nine-fold by 2050. This rapid expansion of solar power will drive the "Age of Electricity," accelerating the decline of fossil fuels and reversing the use of coal power by 2030. Solar energy is projected to surpass nuclear, wind, hydro, gas, and eventually coal, becoming the world's largest single source of electricity by 2033.

It is now cheaper to build onshore wind and solar power projects than new fossil-fuel plants in most parts of the world. This shift is driving the "Age of Electricity."

China played a leading role in this transformation, accounting for 60% of global renewable energy installations last year. By 2030, it is expected to add another 60% of the world’s new renewable capacity. Solar capacity is projected to exceed 16,000 GW by 2050 - 30% higher than last year's estimates and nearly 11 times greater than forecasts made in 2015. Similarly, battery storage capacity is now expected to reach 1,630 GW by 2030, a significant increase from the 1,296 GW previously predicted for 2050 just two years ago. Much of this remarkable progress can be attributed to China’s efforts.

China is poised to become the first major “ELECTROSTATE”, much like Saudi, Russia and Texas are today’s Petrostates.

Electricity demand in China is projected to grow six times faster than global energy demand through 2035, driven by advancements in AI, electric vehicles (EVs), air conditioning, and chip usage. The share of global total energy consumption met by electricity is expected to rise from 20% in 2023 to 24% by 2030, and 32% by 2050. In China, electricity already accounts for 26% of energy consumption today and is predicted to reach nearly 45% by 2050, well above the global average.

Renewable energy in China will grow 2.7 times by 2030 - falling short of the COP28 goal to triple renewables - but low-carbon energy, including renewables and nuclear, is expected to grow by 44% by 2030, outpacing global energy demand growth over the same period.

China’s rapid renewable energy expansion is set to push global fossil fuel use past its peak between 2030 and 2035. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are expected to peak imminently, with a major turning point anticipated as early as 2025.

The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C by 2050 remains achievable - provided China continues to far exceed the Paris 2015 targets, as it has done over the past decade.

If China aspires to become the world’s first "Electrostate Superpower," does it matter that it didn’t commit funds at COP29?

The planet’s fate and global energy security are increasingly in China’s hands.

Are we still comfortable with this reality?

Should we focus on imposing green trade barriers against China, or collaborate to combat climate change?

Let’s ask our grandchildren.